Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Tuesday’s MLB Games
By Derek Carty
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Easily the best pitching streamer of the day is Zach Eflin (14%). He comes in as the fifth-best option of the day overall, behind nearly universally rostered aces like Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease and ahead of Logan Webb and Max Fried. Eflin is perhaps the single most underrostered pitcher in fantasy this year. His xFIP the last three seasons: 3.23, 3.61, and 3.89. The ERA has sometimes been higher, mostly due to bad luck, but it sits at 3.76 this season and he ought to be continue being quite good the rest of the way (and should start picking up more wins as Philly’s elite, but underperforming, offense picks up). Today’s matchup against Miami is a good one, so go get him.
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Another good option today is Nick Pivetta (70%) against Oakland. Oakland projects as the worst offense in baseball, and while they get a big park upgrade going into Fenway, this still represents a favorable matchup for Pivetta.
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If you’ve got Shane Bieber on your team, you should strongly consider benching him today unless you’re in a very deep league. He’s going into Colorado, and while the Rockies offense is nothing special, Coors Field is a big deal. THE BAT projects Bieber for a 5.11 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 4.7 strikeouts, and a 32% chance of getting a Win. If that sounds good to you, go for it, but otherwise he should be firmly on your bench.
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The Pirates and Cardinals play a doubleheader today, which creates a great opportunity for streaming hitters that will see extra volume. While there is never a guarantee anybody will play both games, the guys with the best chances appear to be Tyler O’Neill (71%), Harrison Bader (56%), Nolan Gorman (32%), Cal Mitchell (less than 1 %), Michael Chavis (3%), and Diego Castillo (less than 1%).
0:45
Eric Karabell explains why he believes Bryan Reynolds is capable of returning to top-20 outfielder status in fantasy.
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Outside of the doubleheader (especially if the Cardinals guys aren’t available in your league), the best team to stream from today will be the Cleveland Guardians. THE BAT X projects them as the third-best offense overall today (behind the Dodgers and Padres). They’re going into Coors Field to face Antonio Senzatela, and most of this offense is on the waiver wire in the majority of leagues. Myles Straw (50%), Josh Naylor (38%), Amed Rosario (39%), Owen Miller (52%), Steven Kwan (40%), and Andres Gimenez (36%) are all viable streaming options today. If you need a guy who is almost certainly available, Oscar Gonzalez is just 4% rostered and has been starting every day in the right field.
Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Tuesday
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Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 51%) vs. Cease
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Adam Frazier (SEA, 2B — 56%) vs. Joe Ryan
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Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 57%) vs. Ryan
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Luis Urias (MIL, 3B — 61%) at Chris Bassitt
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Javier Baez (DET, SS — 68%) vs. Cease
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Randy Arozarena (TB, LF — 91%) at Cole
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Josh Bell (WSH, 1B — 98%) vs. Fried
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JP Crawford (SEA, SS — 85%) vs. Ryan
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Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 93%) at Webb
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Salvador Perez (KC, C — 96%) at Webb
THE BAT X’s Best Stacks for Tuesday
Prop of the Day
Sean Manaea pitching outs: Over/Under 17.5 (-180/+135)
Projection
THE BAT X sees Manaea putting up 15.7 pitching outs for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 37.6% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $46.55.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds of the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
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THE BAT X projects Manaea in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent level.
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The Cubs have been the second-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to hit worse in future games.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
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Wrigley Field projects as the No. 6 park in baseball for batting average, according to THE BAT X projection system.
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High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game projects for the third-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 90 degrees.
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The wind projects to be blowing out to center at 12.8 mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.
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Manaea’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (90.4 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).
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